Tag Archives: influenza

Pandemic Woes: Weather Influences Influenza and Pneumonia

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No duh…they already knew this but for those who do not study history it is new to them.

From 2009:  Pandemic Woes:  Bad Weather Ahead? (1918 & 2009)

The Impact of Weather on Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in New York City, 1975-2002:

A Retrospective Study

The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975-2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975-2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (0.61) and severity (0.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the episodes. Weeks in which moist polar air masses were common (air masses characterized by low dew point temperatures) were likewise followed by above normal mortality 17 days later (0.019). This research supports the contention that cold, dry air may be related to influenza mortality and suggests that warning systems could provide enough lead time to be effective in mitigating the effects.

 

Robert E. Davis1*, Colleen E. Rossier1, Kyle B. Enfield2

1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America, 2 Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia Health System, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America

 

Editor:  Viboud, National Institutes of Health, United States of America

In Progress: One Health Davos Summit Yesterday

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Introducing One Health – One Planet – One Future: International Perspectives

Yesterday marked the opening of the first GRF One Health Summit in Davos, Switzerland. The One Health Summit is being held at the renowned international conference center in Davos from 19-23 February 2012. Two hundred and seventy (270) delegates are present from more than 60 countries. The conference is co-hosted with the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute. Basel, and the Swiss Institute of Allergy and Asthma Research, Davos, with help from 38 collaborating institutions. At the conference, there are eight plenary and 15 parallel sessions, comprising 125 papers and 16 poster presentations.


Alain Vandersmissen described the long, historical relationship between human health and animal diseases, starting with developments in ancient Babylonia. The question first began to be tackled seriously in the 19th century, but it was not until 1976 that the concept of One Medicine emerged. This was gradually broadened and transformed into the One Health concept, which in 2004 produced the 12 Manhattan Principles. By 2007, promoting One Health became a natural extension to the global response to avian influenza. A strategic framework evolved in October 2008 and the first One Health conference was held in Canada in 2009. By the Hanoi conference of 2010 the emphasis on avian influenza had broadened to embrace animal influenza as a whole. By the Melbourne conference of 2011 the scientific world had been joined by representatives of the private sector and civil society. Hence it has broadened from an approach to a movement. Continue reading →

Pandemic Woes: 1918 Influenza Pandemic: US Army Perspective

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Bird Flu… Swine Flu… 1918 Flu.  Just what does this flu do to merit the massive attention that media and government are seizing upon?  There is not allot written about the 1918 influenza because there was a media black-out due to global events.  The following is a vivid written and photographic description of the 1918 influenza from the US Army perspective.

From the trenches….

Celeste

Accessed Under Fair Use from Suburban Emergency Management Project

(now purged from the internet)

Biot #641: August 16, 2009

In the fog of the influenza pandemic of 1918, Dr. Victor C. Vaughan, head of communicable diseases for the U.S. Army training camps, cautioned shaken observers that a full accounting of the pandemic required time and further study. (1) Surgeon General M.W. Ireland and Lieutenant Colonel Joseph F. Siler, M.D., prepared and delivered that final accounting in their 600-page tome titled The Medical Department of the United States Army in the World War: Communicable and other Diseases (1928). (2-4) Major Milton W. Hall, M.D., prepared the 110-page chapter on the respiratory disease outbreaks.

Surgeon General Merritte Weber Ireland. Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e5/Merritte_Weber_Ireland.jpg; accessed August 2, 2009.

U.S. Army camp hospital administration building, World War I, where record keeping likely was performed. Source: http://history.amedd.army.mil/booksdocs/wwi/MilitaryHospitalsintheUS/chapter4figure15.jpg; accessed August 2, 2009.

This work on the influenza pandemic and other disease outbreaks among American soldiers between April 1, 1917 and December 31, 1919 is based on massive amounts of actual data analyzed and interpreted by clinicians, medical epidemiologists, and scientists for use by posterity (us). The book is the most detailed, comprehensive, complete, reliable, valid and useful description of the 1918 influenza pandemic available today, in this author’s opinion. Its scientific approach contrasts with the social historical approach common to many books available today on the 1918 influenza pandemic.

What did the physician authors of The Medical Department of the United States Army in the World War: Communicable and other Diseases learn from the medical data collected during the Great War? What can people living a century later (us) learn from their work?

1. Many Infectious Diseases Flourished before and during the Influenza Pandemic Era, 1917-1919, but Influenza and its Complications Dominated

During World War I in the U.S. Army camps, many diseases flourished. There are individual chapters in The Medical Department of the United States Army in the World War: Communicable and other Diseases on the typhoid and the paratyphoid fevers, inflammatory diseases of the respiratory tract, tuberculosis, cerebrospinal meningitis, anthrax, diphtheria, the venereal diseases, the diarrheal group of diseases, chickenpox, scarlet fever, measles, mumps, German measles, encephalitis lethargica, infectious jaundice, typhus fever, trench fever, Vincent’s disease, the malarial fevers, intestinal parasites, diseases of the skin, and neurocirculatory asthenia. Of these myriad diseases afflicting soldiers in the U.S. Army during World War I, the respiratory diseases dominated in quantity and severity. (4) Dr. Hall declared, “[T]he serious and fatal inflammations of the respiratory tract…formed by far the most important factor in the sickness and death records of the Army during the World War.” (5)

Receiving building at a base hospital in a U.S. Army camp, World War I. This is not the hospital ward itself. Instead it is where sick soldiers went for evaluation and triage. Source: http://history.amedd.army.mil/booksdocs/wwi/MilitaryHospitalsintheUS/chapter4figure16.jpg; accessed August 2, 2009.

Interior of one-story hospital ward, U.S. Army camp, World War I. Source: http://history.amedd.army.mil/booksdocs/wwi/MilitaryHospitalsintheUS/chapter4figure26.jpg; accessed August 2, 2009.
2. Morbidity and Mortality Data, Influenza and other Contagious Diseases, U.S. Army, Great War

The total mean strength of the U.S. Army (officers and enlisted men, henceforth, soldiers) from April 1, 1917, to December 31, 1919, was 4,128,479. (6-7) Of these 4,128,479 soldiers, 3,515,464 (85%) reported sick for admission. [!] (6) This number of sick soldiers is astounding.

The total number of soldiers admitted for respiratory diseases was 1,125,401, which calculates to 27% of all soldiers in the U.S. Army and 32% of U.S. soldiers reporting sick for admission. In other words, one out of three soldiers developed respiratory disease requiring sick admission at some time between 1917-1919 and one out of three soldiers reporting for sick admission carried a respiratory disease diagnosis. Note that the respiratory disease diagnoses in the respiratory disease category employed by Dr. Hall were limited to influenza, bronchitis, broncho-pneumonia and lobar pneumonia. Each of these disease entities affects the lower respiratory tract. Upper respiratory disease categories such as pharyngitis [sore throat], tonsillitis, and sinusitis were not included in Dr. Hall’s respiratory diseases category.

Of the 1,125,401 soldiers admitted for respiratory disease diagnoses, 791,907 carried the diagnosis of influenza, which calculates to 19% of all soldiers in the U.S. Army (1917-1919) and 23% of all soldiers who reported sick for admission (1917-1919). By contrast and by way of example, 67,026 (2%) soldiers reported sick for syphilis, 4,831 (0.1%) for cerebro-spinal meningitis, and 1,529 for typhoid fever (0.04%). (2)

Of the 791,907 soldiers diagnosed with influenza, 24,664 (3%) died. (8) There were so many deaths, logistical problems arose over managing the bodies, according to a congressional probe to which Secretary of War Newton Baker responded in three days of testimony in late January 25, 1918, available elsewhere. (9) The U.S. Congress was having difficulty obtaining information on U.S. Army camp operations because of censorship of the press by the Wilson administration, which did not want Germany to know, via U.S. media, of troubles affecting the raising of a U.S. army. Of the 791,907 soldiers diagnosed with influenza, 767,243 (97%) survived their illness.

Of all the deaths charged to influenza, 99.4% were recorded as due secondarily to pneumonia (66.1% broncho-pneumonia and 33.3% lobar pneumonia; the difference between the two types of pneumonias is not important here; rather the fact that the patients died a respiratory death is what is important).

The total number of deaths from all diseases during the war was 58,119. Of the 58,119 deaths due to all diseases, the respiratory diseases accounted for 46,992, or 80.85%. (8) In other words, four out of five soldiers who died of disease died of respiratory disease (as defined by Dr. Hall, see above).
3. Problems Defining a Case of Influenza during the Great War

At the beginning of 1918, most clinicians believed that the bacillus of Pfeiffer caused influenza. Dr. Richard Pfeiffer was an eminent German researcher and son-in-law of Dr. Robert Koch whose conclusions that bacteria caused influenza were based on work done late in the 1889-1892 cycle of the disease. However, noted Dr. Hall, “With the advent of the earlier recognizable waves of the 1918 outbreak it became evident that the bacillus of Pfeiffer was not uniformly present in the cases examined.” (10) Bacteriologists simply were not growing the Pfeiffer bacillus (today known as Haemophilis influenza) from sputum, blood, or other fluids of the gravely sick soldiers exhibiting signs of what was being called “influenza.” In fact, instead, bacteriologists were growing pneumococci and other “mouth” bacteria from sputum, which were under normal circumstances considered benign.

Pfeiffer’s bacillus (Haemophilus influenza) under the microscope. Source: http://pathmicro.med.sc.edu/Infectious%20Disease/Hinfluenzae1.jpg; accessed August 2, 2009. Continue reading →

Pandemic Woes: Bad Weather Ahead?

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The Island Queen in distance being pushed down the Ohio River by the ice. Source: http://www.cincinnativiews.net/images/Flood%20&%20Ice%20Gorge%2017rp.jpg; accessed July 23, 2009.

Fair Use Access Suburban Emergency Management Project,July 5, 2009

(now purged from the internet)

From the trenches,

Celeste

Biot #637: July 23, 2009

Meteorologist Preston C. Day (1859-1931) wrote in December 1918, “The severity of the weather experienced during December and January of the winter of 1917-1918 over the greater part of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, and also over much of Canada and Alaska during the early part of the period, was so unusual as to the length of time the low temperatures persisted, the great area involved, and the degree of cold maintained, that some discussion of the contributing factors, and comparison with similar occurrences of previous years, seems desirable.” (1-2)

 

The sinking of the Princess in the Ohio River, winter of 1917-1918. Source: http://www.cincinnativiews.net/images/Flood%20&%20Ice%20Gorge%2018rp.jpg Continue reading →

Sinusitis Relationship to Influenza

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Influenza Sinusitis and its Relation to Epidemic Influenza

Free Access from Suburban Emergency Management Project August 4, 2009, Biot #638

(This has been purged from the internet)

July 27, 2009

H.E. Robertson, M.D. of Minneapolis, Minnesota, became a major in the U.S. Army in 1917, serving overseas in the Central Medical Department Laboratory of the American Expeditionary Force in France. In May 1918, he published an article titled “Influenza-sinus disease and its relation to epidemic influenza” in the Journal of the American Medical Association, based on his observations of patients in the hospital of the British Expeditionary Forces in France. May 1918 was during the first wave of pandemic influenza (see graph below). His observations are astute.

Graph showing three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918-1919. Source: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979-G1.htm; accessed July 27, 2009.

Robertson wrote, “A typical attack of influenza usually beings as a rhinitis and spreads from the nasal mucosa throughout the respiratory tract. As the chief symptoms are produced by the involvement of the bronchial tree, attention is naturally directed to the lungs and bronchi as the most important foci for the infection. However, in studying acute cases one is often impressed by the fact that the severity of the disease, best evidenced by the general prostration of the patients, is out of all proportion to the physical signs. Tracheo-bronchitis with abundant muco-purulent sputum, a particularly distressing and often spasmodic cough, and moist rales [wet sounds] uniformly present in both lungs, almost exhaust the positive findings of the respiratory tract. It becomes difficult to understand why a vigorous, previously healthy young adult, should succumb to an infection which in many cases appears to be almost wholly confined to the tracheo-bronchial mucosa. It might even be questioned whether such an individual should die from a primary bronchitis and broncho-pneumonia. In the opinion of many clinicians and pathologists, such a combination is rather rare. (1)

Robertson believed that “in addition to the infection of the respiratory tract per se, “other lesions, almost uniformly neglected by writers on the subject and rarely noted by clinicians or pathologists, may prove to be very seriously important factors both in the clinical picture and in the often fatal outcome of the disease.” (1) What are these lesions?

In October 1917, Robertson says he visited the base hospital zone of the British Expeditionary Forces in France, at which time “Captain Rolland of the Royal Army Medical Corps mentioned his observations in a series of cases of this disease, which had occurred in epidemic proportions and which was highly fatal. The influenza bacillus seemed without doubt to be the causal agent, though pneumococci and streptococci were often also isolated [in the laboratory].” Robertson, however, was most surprised at the “involvement of the sinuses at the base of the skull” during autopsies of patients who had succumbed to influenza.

Robertson noted, “Infection of the accessory sinuses of the nose and skull have [sic] often been noted. As early as 1837, Petrequin stated that frontal sinus involvement produced the headache so often present in [influenza]. Bronchin, in 1884, distinguished the ‘cephalic’ form of influenza by localizations in the nasal fossae, and the frontal and maxillary sinuses. Pfeiffer, however, in his classic description of the etiology and pathology of influenza, does not mention the sinuses. [2]…[Pfeiffer] evidently did not encounter or missed the significance of any sinus complications,” declared Robertson. “In short, sinus disease in epidemics of influenza is either totally disregarded or described as an accidental complication or sequel of the infection of the pulmonary tract.” Robertson believed otherwise.

Location of human sinuses. Source: http://ent.med.nyu.edu/files/ent/u3/nose_anatomy_front.gif; accessed July 27, 2009.

“When, therefore, our first fatal case of influenza tracheo-bronchitis and broncho-pneumonia showed, at postmortem examination, an empyema [collection of pus] of both sphenoid [sinus] cavities, and the pus from these revealed both smears and cultures typical influenza bacilli, the condition was regarded as an interesting but unusual complication. However, as case after case coming to necropsy showed similar or comparable lesions, the circumstances warranted more careful and detailed study,” Robertson noted.

Robertson summarizes fourteen necropsies showing involvement of the sinuses.

In his comment section, he wrote, “It would, of course, be unreasonable to assert that all cases of influenza are accompanied by sinus complications…The number of cases is altogether too small to justify any sweeping conclusions. They do serve most emphatically to emphasize the importance of the sinuses in the respiratory type of influenza.” Why?

First, infection of the sinuses “constantly menaces the pulmonary system, only awaiting suitable conditions of exposure and lowered resistance for hostile invasion, but also furnishes continued sources of toxic absorption, not to mention the direct effect on the well being of the patient from the presence of these local conditions.”

Second, and more important, “is the bearing that these local infections have on prophylaxis and treatment. When their attention had been called to the possible constant presence of sinus disease in patients suffering from influenza bronchitis, the attending physicians adopted local measures of treatment for these conditions, even when their presence could not be diagnosed with any degree of certainty. Local applications to the nasal passage of cocaine and epinephrine solutions often resulted in copious discharges of thick, muco-purulent exudates from the sinuses, with marked relief to the patient, such as amelioration of headache and pain in the eyes, as well as definite betterment of the conditions in the bronchi and trachea.” (1)

Detail of human sinuses. Source: http://www.sinustreatmentcenter.com/scfig3_500.jpg; accessed July 27, 2009.

Robertson summarizes his findings, as follows (two have been omitted):

1. “Epidemics of respiratory influenza (purulent tracheo-bronchitis) have been fairly severe in both the American and the British Expeditionary Forces.
2. In the investigation of cases, both clinically and at postmortem, little attention in the past has been give to the question of accompanying sinus disease.
3. Of eight fatal cases of purulent tracheo-bronchitis due to the influenza bacillus, all but one showed involvement of one or more of the sinuses at the base of the skull by inflammatory processes, probably, in all cases, directly due to the invasion of these sinuses by the influenza bacillus.
4. Appropriate treatment of the sinuses in patients suffering from influenza often served to relieve the symptoms and apparently to hasten convalescence.
5. Investigation of the sinuses during epidemics of influenza is strongly recommended and urged not only on therapeutic but also on prophylactic grounds.” (1)

Robertson’s findings are relevant to today. Effective treatment of influenza sinusitis may prevent spread to the lungs. Treatment, however, is possible only with awareness of the disease entity, i.e., influenza sinusitis.

Notes:

1. H.E. Robertson: “Influenzal sinus disease and its relation to epidemic influenza.” JAMA, May 1918, Volume 70, Number 21, pp. 1533-1535. Available at
2. Pfeiffer’s bacillus, subsequently named Hemophilus influenza, was shown by Martha Wollstein, M.D., in 1919, to be “at least a very common secondary invader in influenza, and that its presence influences the pathological process.” However, patients’ serological reactions that she studied were not “sufficiently stable and clean-cut to signify that Pfeiffer’s bacillus is the specific inciting agent of epidemic influenza.” Source: Martha Wollstein: “Pfeiffer’s bacillus and influenza: A serological study.” The Journal of Experimental Medicine, Volume 30, pp. 555-568, 1919. Abstract available at http://jem.rupress.org/cgi/content/abstract/30/6/555; full text is available at http://jem.rupress.org/cgi/reprint/30/6/555; accessed July 27, 2009.

http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=638
Copyright 2009 – SEMP INC., All Rights Reserved.

From the trenches,

Celeste

Pandemic Woes: Who Does What? A Simple Org Chart

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Who are the lead agencies for what during a flu event?  We also are under the UN direction since the declared Level 6 .

Don’t forget the get your Freedom Packs Ready and No Constitutional No Trespassing Signs up and ready for ‘visitors’.  Have some way to copy or reproduce individual identification to accompany the Public Servant Questionnaire.

DEPARTMENTS LEADING REVIEW GROUPS

Priority # Priority Title Lead Department

1 Mass Vaccination    HHS/CDC
2 Public Health Continuity of Operation Plan   HHS/CDC
3 Surveillance and Laboratory   HHS/CDC
4 Communication   HS/CDC
5 Community-Wide Healthcare Coalitions to meet Patient Surge Expected from Pandemic Influenza     HHS/ASPR/HRSA
6 Facilitating Medical Surge  HHS/ASPR/HRSA
7 Fatality Management  HHS/ASPR/HRSA
8 Antiviral Drug Distribution Plan – submitted separately  HHS/CDC
9 Community Containment Plan – submitted separately   HHS/CDC
10 Policy Process for School Closure and the Communication Plan for this Decision ED
11 Education and Social Services in the Face of School Closures  ED
12 Sustain/Support 17 Critical Infrastructure Sectors & Key Assets DHS
13 Working with the Private Sector to Ensure Continuity of Operations for Critical Essential Services so that Critical Infrastructure Operations are as “Near Normal” as Possible for Social and Economic Well-Being DHS
14 State Plans Must Conform to all NRP/NIMS Requirements   DHS
15 Mitigate the Impact of an Influenza Pandemic on Workers in the State DHS
16 Assisting Employers in the State   DHS
17 Employment Policies during an Influenza Pandemic  DHS
18 Human Resource Policies for State Employees DHS
19 Coordination of Law Enforcement  DOJ
20 Critical Essential Function for Food Safety  USDA, HHS/FDA
21 Operational Status of State-Inspected Slaughter and food Processing Establishments Including Talmadge Aiken Plants  USDA, HHS/FDA
22 Communication Strategy for Interface with USDA food Safety Inspection Service and FDA’s Federal State Relations   USDA, HHS/FDA
23 Ensure Adequate Reporting Systems Regarding Food Safety USDA, HHS/FDA
24 State Advisories Regarding Diplomatic Missions  DOS

From the trenches,

Celeste

Swine Flu (H1N1) Economic Update

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Potential economic impacts of the A H1N1flu outbreak

Fair Use Access June 23, 2009 World Bank June 22, 2009 GDF Report

For Educational Purposes Only

Although the spread of H1N1 appears to have eased, its spread is likely to pick up as the flu season begins in the southern hemisphere and again when it returns in the northern hemisphere. Even if it does not mutate into a more deadly form, a second wave of the flu in low-income countries’ could have serious consequences-given poor countries limited capacity to monitor and treat an outbreak and the higher incidence of chronic disease within their populations (the  re-existence of chronic health conditions and delays before medical intervention appear to be among the factors that have contributed to deaths where they have occurred). More worrisome is the possibility that H1N1 could mutate into or combine with a more aggressive form of the flu-such as H5N1 (avian influenza). As a flu for which much of the world’s population has limited pre-existing immunity (WHO 2009), A H1N1 could infect as much as 35 percent of the world’s population (WHO 2006)-spreading throughout the world in as few as 180 days during flu season. Continue reading →

When Pigs Fly! Biological Warfare Upon Man and Beast

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When Pigs Fly! Biological Warfare Upon Man and Beast

Houston we have trouble! For those observing (to say the word ‘watch’ lands you on a certain list) biological events the last week has been eventful .It appears as though the biological event of biblical proportion which many have been expecting was possibly released world-wide a few years ago.  Under a research grant the USDA transferred to the Republic of Georgia weaponized African Swine Influenza. A new paradigm manifested in the conflict between the Republic of Georgia and Russian Federation as the Swine Flu spread like wildfire, a perfect proving ground.

LINK Here

and

LINK Here

Last August the Russian Federation, the Republic of Georgia (not the US), the Pacific NW, Brazil, Tokyo, the US Army were scrambling and doing surveillance operations on the Swine Flu virus, in the Ortho-myxoviruses family, which appears to now be encircling the globe.  As in the biblical plague account the pestilence also known as plagues occurred over a period of a year, with increasing intensity and diversity.

This morning, April 28th, Israel is engaged in active surveillance.

How does a virus cross the species barrier?  Here is a visual from a NH Pandemic Power Point:

The Swine Flu has been the subject of controversy for some years.In the 1970′s there was a scare resulting in a document:The Swine Flu Affair: Decision Making on a Slippery Disease by Richard E. Neustadt and Harvey V Fineberg, M.D.The goal of the Health Department was vaccinate the entire population for Swine and Victoria A Influenza.Much of the population became disabled with Guillian-Barre Syndrome, a permanent paralytic condition.For a historical reference please visit this link:

http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cphl/history/books/sw/swineflu_intro.pdf

You can read about the different classifications of virology at:

http://www.virology.net/garryfavweb13.html

Most genetic changes in the flu viruses human, pig, and bird are  small and subtle point mutations in the viruss RNA. Less common but more alarming are sudden, wholesale changes that replace entire genes and are more likely to circumvent the immune system. This process, called genetic shift, is exactly what is now occurring in North American pigs. Thus, the latest swine influenza virus is a curious hybrid: The genes that code for its coat proteins derive from classical swine influenza, but half of its internal genes have been snatched whole from avian and human viruses.The structure of the influenza virus lends itself to such radical changes. The virus is made of eight single-stranded segments of RNA that together code for 10 proteins (see illustration). If two or more different viruses infect the same host cell, they can swap segments, creating new viral types.

Enter:  Coxsackie

7 MARCH 2003 VOL 299 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org.  A 2002 report from the Corp of Engineers on cold weather research on Swine Flu and Coxsackie: LINK

Coxsackie is a particularly interesting *novel* (created bug) that mimics or disguises itself as other diseases such as cancer or neurological diseases, making it particularly difficult to diagnose.  It is the perfect bug for those who desire to “Game In” a New Order by way of a bio-event.  The rules of engagement for gaming in a bio-event.  When combined with the Swine or Avian Flu this insidious bug takes on an extremely lethal result.  There was significant “research” done with Coxsackie in the 1990′s.

What is Gaming a Biological Event?

Notice that the Corp studied this deadly combo during cold weather.  The influenza rate was plummeting drastically in the last few weeks as spring began to emerge.  A weaponized release of a bio bug would have greater results in a winter release. Notice below that military reports of influenza as well as the population at large were beginning to fall with the onset of the spring season.  This recent report clearly shows that in the military influenza was not swine flu, and that was emphasized.  An abrupt onset of *novel* influenza or manufactured influenza in a time period that normally sees cases of influenza dropping must be considered suspect.

Changes on the farm may be fostering the evolution of the swine flu virus and if a dangerous new strain crosses back into humans, it could have deadly consequences.  For an overview of the jump from pig to bird to man see the following article:

LINK Here

The Fog of Epidemics (or War):  The Phoenix Rises

The following is an articulate article written in 2005 by Richard Krause of the National Health Institute in Bethesda, Maryland.

LINK Here

“I read the 1953 lecture on Influenza: the Newe Acquayantance (1) by Thomas Francis, Jr, in 1953, and I did not read it again until recently, as I was preparing this article. On reflection, I wish I had reread it during the swine flu episode in 1976. Certainly Francis’s lecture, and his conclusions and speculations about the mysteries of 1918 influenza, should temper our strategies for coping with a possible human pandemic arising, like a PHOENIX, from the current influenza epidemic in Asian chickens.”

The uncertainty that surrounds any response to a microbial outbreak, the “fog of epidemics,” is analogous to the fog of war, of which historians speak .

The Fog of War: Uncertainty
Where is the enemy?
What is his strength?
What counterattack?

The Fog of Epidemics: Uncertainty
Where is the microbe?
How many; how virulent; how communicable?
What counterattack?

Perceived Miscalculations
1975 Swine flu outbreak
Response too rapid
1981 HIV/AIDS occurrence
Response too slow

Notice the Fog of War and Epidemics merge in this *novel* and very pathogenic “game”.

The Fog of War

One can compare the above with Robert McNamara’s eleven life lesson’s during his tenure in Department of Defense:

  1. Empathize with your enemy
  2. Rationality will not save us
  3. There’s something beyond one’s self
  4. Maximize efficiency
  5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
  6. Get the data
  7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
  8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning
  9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
  10. Never say never
  11. You can’t change human nature

Gambling is the wagering of something with material value, such as an asset, on an EVENT with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional assets and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period of time.Gaming typically refers to something permit by the LAW and is commonly known as gambling.

Our society has embraced fantasy and with it the people become actors in a fantasy play that may or may not be reality.Games can be Massively Multi-player Online Role Playing assuming fictional roles and interact with each other in a virtual world.Or the game may take place as RPG in which actors assume fictional roles with no way to interact aside from the game.Training of government employees and volunteers utilize table top training or gaming to prepare for various hazards.

There are three variables common to all forms of gambling:

  • How much is being wagered, the initial stake (in money or material goods).
  • The predictability of the event.
  • The odds agreed between the two (or more) parties to the wager.The odds are arranged in favor of the house.
  • The expected value, positive or negative, is a mathematical calculation using these three variables.

Studies show people who participate in like any behavior which involves variation in brain chemistry, can become a psychologically addictive and harmful behavior in some people.

Influenza Timeline

The following is a timeline of recent influenza outbreaks:

Sequencing the Human-Avian-Swine-1918 Influenza

The process has taken some time to evolve. Here is study from Taiwan in 2004 with the influenza sequencing.LINK Here


Are government officials READY for a pandemic?

YES!

For the tip of a biological iceberg: LINK Here

For years the infrastructure has been developed, well exercised, tested, and is now ready.  What event will be the ONE that will go live?  Only the actors at the top know that but it appears as though the timing is close as all the ducks are in a row.  Those who stand to gain from a mass population culling are ready to save the planet with their insidious drama.  As we have learned from the Fog of War though the ambiguity of their plan may well go awry from their anticipated or wagered outcome.

Are you ready for the pandemic?

Persons whose hearts are hardened are responsible for events which will unfold and they will be punished, measure for measure.  It is critical that your heart remain sensitive and repentant towards your Creator.  If you resist to be teachable then your heart may be hardened for you as in years past.  A heart once hardened effectively impairs your plague ridden decision making processes.

It is comforting to know that only the Finger of God can transfer and create Ex Nihilo Yesh Mai-Ayin, something from nothing.  So while those who think they are creating something *novel* are mere puppets in the hands of the Divine Author.

Plagues of any sort as you saw above clearly indicate a strategy of a general laying siege to a city or population.  Wild beasts will rob you of ownership of your own land to an existence of a insecure stranger.  Greed and deceit that were enjoyed in countries will now succumb to their immoral fruit.  Animals of the wild and human form will not fear “man” as they were created to do as humans sink into their animistic nature.  As plagues continue (which has been promised) the plagues will rob you of your possession’s your sense of superiority and reduce you to lowly submission.  The plagues will also cause you and your loved ones physical suffering.

As the gods of this world are abolished so too is their coinage.  Be prepared for this eventuality.

Pestilence causes awareness of the distinctions between good and evil.  At the opening ceremony of Plum Island bio weapons facility a USDA scientist stated,

Our plans for the future must include an ever-abundant supply of food if we want our people to be strong and our nation to endure.Science will make the difference in the battle between Good and Evil.The crown jewel of this blossoming, futuristic agricultural empire will be Plum Island.  Simply put science will not determine the outcome of the battle between Good and Evil, that alone, only God can do.

We will witness some unusual mixing of substances and that which is not to be mingled. Do not fear, but be comforted that you are witnessing what has never been upon this earth nor will be again.  Much as a mother in labor the outcome if one fears God, is blessed and rewarded.  For those who believe in God and His Son, Jesus, will find themselves in a protective abode.

While the lingering prediction foretold by the pundits may appear troubling it is actually a blessing in disguise.  If all the pestilence and plagues hit at one time humans would universally not be able to absorb such a creation cognitively, emotionally, and practically.  Suddenness breeds crises that one is not able to endure.  This psychological upheaval can be endured when the crises gradually increase.

Understand that the upswing in “volunteerism” is dangerous, very dangerous.  Our country is flirting with a policy of slavery once again. Slavery is dehumanizing and is a stain on the human soul. Gods people are to be strangers with our own customs, Set Apart, and model citizens.  But we have a *change* and we will soon see murderous racial laws and sweeping legislation legalizing slavery in the name of volunteerism.  You will be asked to volunteer your talents, your body and your information for the “good of the society”. Human beings are created in the image of God and slavery stands, “directly opposite to the path of creation and is the antithesis of God’s purpose for humanity,” says R’ Aviner, who further states, “Enslavement constitutes a perversion of creation and the enslavement removes his fundamental image of God and his ability to be free“.  Subjugation turns a human being from subject to object, from chief to chattel.”  The legal foundations for this have already been achieved. In Washington State a farmer who does not agree to have his assets inspected, tested, vaccinated, and electronically identified is considered a menace to society and the property is quarantined and depopulated (killed or culled).  We will see this policy expand as pestilence hits our land. You discover conflict within yourself as compliance goes against your moral and ethical standards.

While the tidal wave of plagues comes upon the earth the evildoers will be punished for ruining the world, and those who repent and find refuge in God will gain access to redress for the harm done to them.  That is true hope and change  “In Egypt He wrought miracles for you and your eyes saw it.  The great trials (ha-massoth) which thine eyes saw, what is the force of ha-massoth?  It implies that the plagues weakened (me-massoth) the bodies of the Egyptians. What is the meaning of the signs?  The plagues became engraven on their bodies, and the wonders deceived them.  [Midrash Rabbah Devarim VII:6  It goes back to the duties of the heart to stand firm against what is coming against us with courage, and not allowing the plagues or their mark to be engraven on our bodies.

Take courage as we face these days head on, living in reality.  Resist escaping into the fantasy world that has been created to enslave us.  Look up, because we are sure to see some great and marvelous times.


Operation Readiness: The Pandemic Ducks are in a Row

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Just an interesting side note, when I first received this Excel document it was in Chinese.

Excel is needed to open the following document:

Pandemic Excel State Ops

The first tab of this document is an exercise tab which contains a checklist of operating objectives, including if the objective was tested, what was tested and why, and how to improve the Operating Plan.

The second appendix A.1 is a COOP-COG unit: Update information for employees on State’s operating status and latest pandemic influenza information; continue to advise employees concerning HR policies, workplace flexibilities, pay and benefits, etc.

Appendix A.2 focuses on ensuring public health COOP during each phase of the pandemic.

Appendix A.3 spotlights “Continuity of the Food Supply System”. Continue reading →

Judiciary: A Texas Pandemic Benchbook

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This 125 page document is the benchbook for the judiciary who will be evaluating isolation, quarantine and other controversial issues surrounding the legal aspects of the pandemic influenza.

Judiciary: A Texas Benchbook Continue reading →